A very strong El Niño is forecast for this winter, and that raises the odds of a wet rainy season across the Los Angeles and Ventura county valleys. If your gutters only just cope in a normal year, assume they won’t cope in this one. Get them cleaned and the downspouts flushed by the end of October, and plan a second look in the middle of winter.
That’s the short version. Below is what the forecast says, how much weight to put on it, and what a wet winter does to gutters that a normal one doesn’t.
What is NOAA forecasting for winter 2026-27?
As of September 10, 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect. Its monthly ENSO discussion says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during fall and winter 2026-27. It also gives a 75% chance that October through December comes in stronger than any El Niño in its records, which go back to 1950.
El Niño is a warming of the surface water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The part that matters here is what it does to the winter storm track. In a strong event, the Pacific jet stream tends to shift south of its usual position, which puts Southern California in line for more storms.
The Climate Prediction Center updates that outlook every month, so check the link for the latest.
Does El Niño always mean a wet winter in Los Angeles?
No. It tilts the odds. Here’s what downtown Los Angeles got in the four strongest El Niño winters in NOAA’s record before this one.
| El Niño season | Downtown Los Angeles rainfall |
|---|---|
| 1982-83 | 31.25 inches |
| 1997-98 | 31.01 inches |
| 2015-16 | 9.65 inches |
| 2023-24 | 25.19 inches |
Those are National Weather Service season totals, measured July through June. A normal season downtown is 14.25 inches.
Three of those four winters were soakers. The fourth, 2015-16, was the strongest El Niño of the four by NOAA’s index, and Los Angeles came in well under normal. NOAA makes the same point in this year’s forecast. With an event this strong the chances of the usual El Niño impacts are larger, “though not guaranteed.”
So treat the forecast as a reason to be ready, and don’t bother guessing the total. Getting the gutters cleaned is the same job whether the winter brings 10 inches or 30. Skipping it is what gets expensive in the 30-inch year.
Why is a wet winter harder on gutters?
A normal winter here is a string of storms with dry stretches in between. Gutters get a chance to drain and dry out, and a partial clog can go unnoticed until spring. A wet winter takes those breaks away.
The debris never dries. Wet leaves and needles weigh a lot more than dry ones, and a gutter holding soaked debris for weeks starts pulling at its hangers. That’s when runs sag and gutters tip away from the fascia. Signs your gutters need repair covers what to look for.
Small clogs turn into overflow. A downspout that’s partly blocked will often pass a light rain and then back up in a heavy one. The water goes over the front edge and lands against the fascia, behind the stucco and beside the slab. What clogged gutters actually damage follows that water through the house.
The ground stops absorbing. After several storms close together, the soil around the house can’t take in much more, so more of what comes out of a downspout stays on the surface. If the outlet dumps next to the foundation, the water sits there. A short downspout extension is a detail in a dry year. In a wet one it’s doing real work.
The wind keeps refilling the gutters. Santa Ana wind season overlaps the rainy season, so a wind event between storms drops fresh leaves into gutters you cleaned in October, right before the next rain.
Undersized gutters get found out. If a run overflows in heavy rain even when it’s clean, it may be too small for the roof area draining into it. Gutter styles and sizing explains when a 6 inch gutter or a bigger downspout is the fix.
What should I do before the first storm?
Do the normal pre-season prep, and do it early. The pre-rain-season checklist has the full ten steps, and all of them apply. In a year like this, three deserve extra attention.
Start with the downspouts. Run a hose into the top of each gutter run and watch the outlet. You want steady flow within a few seconds. In foothill neighborhoods like Granada Hills, oak debris compacts in the elbows where you can’t see it from the ground, and in Agoura Hills the oak tassels do the same thing. Clogged downspouts covers how to clear them.
Then look at where the water lands. Every downspout that doesn’t go underground should discharge onto a splash block or an extension that carries the water a few feet from the foundation. On the graded lots in Canyon Country, that’s what keeps runoff moving away from the foundation and the side yard. On a flat Valley lot, water that lands at the slab edge tends to pool there.
Then check the underground drains, if you have them. Run the hose into the downspout and confirm water comes out at the curb. If it doesn’t, the line is blocked, and the first big storm will back water up to the base of the wall.
Homes under older shade trees, like a lot of Reseda and the hillside streets of Studio City, should also get the roof valleys cleared. Whatever is sitting in the valleys ends up in the gutter with the first heavy rain.
Don’t wait for a storm in the forecast to book any of this. That’s when everyone calls, and the calendar fills fast.
How often should gutters be checked in an El Niño winter?
More often than in a normal year. Our baseline for most homes is twice a year, and how often to clean gutters breaks that down by tree type. For a wet winter, add a step.
Get the pre-season cleaning done by the end of October. Look again after the first big storm or the first big wind event, whichever comes first. If you have oaks, pines or eucalyptus near the roof, put a mid-winter visit on the calendar now.
Between visits, watch the gutters while it’s raining. Water sheeting over the front edge means a clog. So does a downspout that only dribbles while the gutter above it is full. Either one means the gutters need attention before the next storm, not at the end of the season.
Do the watching from the ground. Rungs, roofs and the ground all get slick when it’s wet, and our safety guide covers which days to stay off the ladder.
Our Annual membership plan has an optional post-storm inspection at a discounted member rate, which fits a winter like this one.
What about hillside homes and recent burn areas?
Hillside lots handle two kinds of water in a storm, what comes off the roof and what comes down the slope. On steep lots in Topanga Canyon and the canyon side of Malibu, a blocked gutter can send roof water toward a retaining wall or a path instead of the drain it was meant for. Clear runs and clear outlets matter a lot on these lots.
Neighborhoods near recent burn areas have a second problem. Burned slopes shed more water and mud in heavy rain than they did before the fire, and any ash that settled on the roof washes into the gutters with the first storms. Gutters can’t do anything about a slope, so follow your county’s storm and evacuation notices for that. Their job is to keep your own roof water under control and headed for the street.
If you’re in one of those neighborhoods, the fall cleaning does double duty, because dry gutter debris is also an ember risk until the rain arrives. Gutters and wildfire covers that side.
What we do on a storm-prep visit
A pre-season cleaning from us clears the troughs and the roof valleys, flushes every downspout, checks underground drains where they exist, inspects hangers and seams, and notes any pitch or sag problems. Then we tell you what we found, so anything that needs repair gets handled before the rain and not during it.
The membership plans put the fall visit on the calendar automatically each year. It’s free to join, and the more frequent plans cost less per visit. Otherwise, call (818) 913-1626 Monday through Saturday 7am to 7pm, or request an estimate. Property managers and HOAs can read about commercial service, and you can see every area we cover.